The Los Angeles Clippers scored a Game 4 victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday to even their first-round series 2-2, and they did so without the superstar services of Kawhi Leonard, who missed his second game of this series with knee inflammation. There is no timetable for his return and he remains out indefinitely.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before.
Since Leonard arrived in Los Angeles in the summer of 2019 as something of a championship mercenary after what he pulled off in Toronto, he has managed to suit up for just 28 of the Clippers’ 41 playoff games. Throw out 2020 when Leonard played all 13 games of L.A.’s second-round run, and he has been sidelined for multiple games in each of his last three postseasons.
In 2021, the Clippers looked like a top-shelf title contender before Leonard tore his ACL in Game 4 of the conference semis against Utah, which kept him out for the remainder of those playoffs and for the entirety of the following season.
Last season, Leonard averaged 35 points through the first two games of the Clippers’ first-round series against Phoenix, then he tore his MCL and missed the next three as L.A. was eliminated in five.
Who knows if we’ll see him again this postseason, or how long the Clippers can last without him. At this point, you would be a fool to think Leonard can be depended on to make it through a full postseason in good health. And if he can’t do that, the Clippers cannot compete for a title. And if the Clippers cannot compete for a title, it becomes pretty hard to justify the three-year, $152 million extension they handed Leonard this past January.
Oh yeah, you forgot about that? The Clippers just signed up for three more years of this. They allowed themselves to be fooled after Leonard managed to stay healthy through the first three months of action. This is a classic stock-market blunder. You allow yourself to believe that whatever is currently happening will keep happening.
Wrong.
Leonard getting hurt again was only a matter of time, and it’s only going to get worse over these next three seasons. By the end of this latest contract, Leonard will be 35 years old, and the Clippers will have paid him just shy of $350M over six seasons.
And if you’re paying all that money to Leonard, then you pretty much have to pay James Harden, who’s a free agent this summer, in addition to George, who’s also a free agent. What’s the alternative? To let them walk for nothing and open up a new arena with a hobbled Leonard and a bunch of C-listers?
They have no choice but to go all-in, yet again, with the Leonard-George tandem that has now added Harden, because on top of all the actual cash they’ve paid these guys, they also bear the burden of the trade that brought George, who was a package deal with Leonard, to Los Angeles from Oklahoma City, which cost them Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is going to be on the MVP short list for the next decade.
The Clippers are throwing good money after bad. All the cash they’ve already paid Leonard is a sunk cost. SGA is gone. Giving Leonard another $150M, plus whatever silly money they’re going to throw at Harden and George to keep this pipe dream alive this summer, is not bringing any of that back.
They should’ve cut their losses and looked to trade Leonard and/or George. Instead, they traded what was left of their future capital for Harden, tripling down on a losing hand. Now they owe their next six first-round draft picks, either straight up or via swaps, to the Thunder for what’s left of the George deal and the 76ers. Once they overpay Harden and give George, who will have heavy competing offers, at least what Leonard got, they’ll be committed with an even worse hand than the one they started with.
It’s a disaster, and if George has more foresight than the Clippers and thinks to himself: ‘Do I really want to bank the last years of my prime on a co-star that is virtually guaranteed to turn up injured in the playoffs?’, it’s going to get even worse.
Because unlike Harden, George is going to have options. Nobody is going to pay Harden what the Clippers are almost forced to pay him given how invested they already are, but George could head to the 76ers, for example, who have max space, and leave the Clippers with two over-the-hill superstars making prime-superstar money.
George has to be considering it, right? This just hasn’t worked with Leonard. They’ve only played 181 of a possible 410 regular-season games together over five years. That’s 44%. Meaning more than half the time George takes the court with the Clippers, Leonard isn’t with him. He’s either been injured or load managing in an effort to avoid injuries, only to get injured in the payoffs anyway.
I’m going to say it again: This is a disaster for the Clippers. It’s nobody’s fault, necessarily. Leonard can’t help his failing body, and in the summer of 2019, there wasn’t single a team in the NBA that wouldn’t have thrown every organizational egg it had into the Leonard-George basket. But at a certain point, reality has to trump fantasy.
Leonard suddenly turning up healthy for an entire playoff run, and the Clippers then turning that playoff run into a championship, is a fantasy. Reality is what is happening, and has been happening all along. Leonard is once again in street clothes. The Clippers are clinging to first-round life again. And now they have three more years of this reality to look forward to, at a cool $50M a year. Yikes.
For a guy who shot 0-for-7, turned the ball over five times, committed five fouls and missed half of his free throw attempts, Josh Hart had a marvelous game on Sunday.
Typically, a statement like this is followed by a reference to the intangibles that Hart brings to the New York Knicks, the energy and leadership and subtle stuff that doesn’t show up in the box score. But much of what Hart brought did show up in the box score. He pulled down 17 rebounds, five of them on the offensive glass. He dished five assists, blocked three shots and played 46 minutes in a 97-92 win against the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 4 of their first-round series.
“Josh was unbelievable,” New York coach Tom Thibodeau said.
It would have been nice if Hart had again made four 3s — as he had in each of the three preceding games, after not once hitting that mark all regular season — or at least not regressed to the mean this sharply, but the Knicks didn’t need his scoring this time. Jalen Brunson dropped 47 points, OG Anunoby was more aggressive than usual and Miles McBride gave them just enough juice off the bench for them to eke out the victory and put Philadelphia on the brink of elimination.
It was enough because the Knicks held the Sixers to 101.1 points per 100 possessions at Wells Fargo Center and 76.2 per 100 in the fourth quarter. (For reference, the league’s least efficient offense, Memphis, scored 106.8 per 100 during the regular season.) That doesn’t happen without Hart.
“Josh was everywhere,” Thibodeau said. “And he was the trigger. He was the trigger of the defense.”
Hart, who stands 6-foot-4, may not be the first player to come to mind when you think of rim protection. Early in the fourth quarter, though, he zoomed from the right block (where he was in help position to deter Joel Embiid from driving) to the left side of the rim, where he rejected Nicolas Batum’s dunk and forced a turnover. Shortly after that, Hart blocked Tobias Harris at the rim and started a fast break.
A week earlier, in between Hart’s 13-rebound performance in the series opener and his 15-rebound performance in Game 2, a reporter asked Batum what made Hart so good on the offensive glass. “I don’t know,” Batum said. “If he’s got a secret, give it to me, please.” Only three players have a higher rebounding average than Hart in the playoffs, and they’re all centers: Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic and Jarrett Allen.
Hart rebounded his own missed free throw on Sunday. He prevented a putback dunk by boxing out big man Paul Reed. Late in the third quarter, he created an open 3 for Donte DiVincenzo before hitting the ground.
“I mean, I had to do something,” Hart said, referencing his turnovers and poor shooting. “Offensively it just wasn’t there today, but when you have that, you have to try to figure out ways to still make an impact in the game. And for me, that was rebounding and pushing; offensive rebounding, trying to get extra possessions. I looked athletic on a couple of blocks, so that was nice.”
Thibodeau never basks in victories, but he does seem to take a certain pride in the grimier ones. Following Game 4, he praised the team for its fight after falling behind by 12 points in the first quarter. “We need everyone just hustling like crazy,” Thibodeau said. This is Hart’s specialty. In the game’s opening minute, he picked up Embiid in transition, fronted him and deflected the ball out of bounds. In its 47th minute, he took away Maxey’s driving lane, then closed out perfectly on Harris’ corner 3.
Anunoby’s defense against Embiid will be the bigger storyline entering Tuesday’s Game 5, but, when Thibodeau was asked about Anunoby’s ability to defend up and down the positional spectrum, he made a point of saying that “the same could be said for Josh.” In the game that gave New York a 3-1 lead, Hart started off chasing Maxey around, then spent plenty of time protecting the paint. And when Oubre decided to challenge him one-on-one, it didn’t end well for the Sixers:
When the Knicks try to end the series at Madison Square Garden, they’ll hope to have the version of Hart that was knocking down 3s and making Philadelphia pay for leaving him open. For years, though, Thibodeau has repeatedly said in press conferences that “you don’t have to shoot well to play well.” This is true all the time when it comes to Hart; on Sunday, he just took it to an extreme.
he NBA regular season is over, and that means the vast majority of the NBA’s top rookies have finished their first league season in the association. Victor Wembanyama, Brandon Miller, and Chet Holmgren are the three finalists for this year’s Rookie of the Year award. Wembanyama and Miller went 1-2 in the 2023 NBA Draft, while Holmgren missed his true rookie season after Oklahoma City selected him second in 2022.
As the rest of the league hits the couch this week and enjoys the first round of the NBA Playoffs, now’s a good time to look back at the 2023 draft and redo some selections. If only we knew then what we know now.
San Antonio Spurs: C Victor Wembanyama, France Original pick: Wembanyama
Let’s put it plainly… he’s every bit as good as advertised. Wembanyama came to the NBA with more hype than arguably any prospect since LeBron James, and a year later, there are no fewer reasons for that level of enthusiasm. Because he’s unlike any physical prototype we’ve ever seen before, there were understandable concerns about whether his body could hold up, but durability was not an issue this year as he played 71 games. Defensively, he led the league in blocks by a wide margin (he averaged 3.6 per game, and Walker Kessler was next at 2.4), and he likely would have gained more traction for Defensive Player of the Year if he played on a more competitive team.
Offensively, the 20-year-old looks every bit capable of being a primary option on a contending team down the road. It wasn’t just that he averaged over 21 points in less than 30 minutes per night while shooting 47% from the floor, 33% from 3-point range and 80% from the line, or even that he handed out nearly 4 assists per game. It was the growth he showed during the course of the season. Before Jan. 1, Wemby averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds, 3.3 assists (vs. 3.3 turnovers), and 3.1 blocks on 44/29/79 shooting. After March 1, he averaged 23.7 points, 12 rebounds, 5.4 assists (vs. 4.4 turnovers), and 4.4 blocks on 46/32/75 shooting. Beyond the numbers, this guy was must-see TV because virtually every night, he made some type of logic-defying play that no one else in the league could duplicate because of his massive length and ability to cover the court, coupled with his defensive dominance and offensive escalation. I’m already jacked for Year 2 in the Alamo City.
Charlotte Hornets: SF Brandon Miller, Alabama Original pick: Miller
The Michael Jordan-led front office took a lot of criticism over the years, but let’s give credit where credit is due; they (finally?) got their lottery selection right. The choice was between Miller and Scoot Henderson. It was considered a toss-up by most, including Hornets fans, many of whom were unhappy on draft night. A year later, there now appears to have been a clear right answer, and MJ’s group made it. Miller averaged 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.5 stocks per game with 44/37/83 shooting splits, but he averaged over 20 points per game in the last game of the season after becoming more of an offensive focal point for Charlotte, and thus a key to opposing defensive scouting reports.
There were signs of offensive stardom, with 29 games with 20+ points and 4 games with 30+, in large part because he fused what made him great in high school, the mid-range game, with what defined him at Alabama, his 3-point shooting. This year, he showed the foundation of a true multi-dimensional weapon, with the versatility to make defenses pay for various coverages. His 2.5 made 3-pointers per game were the third-most by a rookie in NBA history while the mid-post and pull-ups that were frowned upon in Nate Oats’ system have returned.
Whether Miller blossoms into a true alpha scorer or tops out as a Robin to someone else’s Batman remains to be seen. The key variable may be his ability to put pressure on the rim, which was the biggest question mark going into last year’s draft. He attempted only about 18% of his total shots at the rim this year, which ranked in the bottom 10% of the league.
Portland Trail Blazers: PG Scoot Henderson, G League Ignite Original pick: Henderson
This is where it gets interesting. On draft night, Portland was perceived to have the easiest pick of the night, other than San Antonio. They would just take whoever Charlotte didn’t take. That ended up being Henderson. In retrospect, that looks like a decision that should have considered numerous other options. One year into their NBA career, Wembanyama is at a level all by himself, and Miller actually is too, albeit notably behind Wemby. Who follows depends on if you believe there is another player that has legitimate star upside. That was certainly the belief for Scoot on draft night. Now, it is less clear. While there was plenty of context around his disappointing year — he had the pressure of replacing arguably the best player in franchise history and was limited by injury at more than one point — that doesn’t account for the discrepancy between what we were expecting and what we saw.
Here’s why I still go with him at No. 3. While the probability isn’t as high as it was a year ago, there are still all-star caliber outcomes that are possible here, and I’m just not sure there’s another player with a higher probability of reaching that level, even if there were others that had better rookie seasons. Henderson showed important progression as a shooter this season, particularly off the dribble, but was surprisingly incapable of finishing at the rim. Given his strength and body type, that’s definitely an area he should be able to improve. Finally, patience is a requisite at the point, more so than any other position in the NBA, and given the upside still exists, he’s still a worthwhile get at No. 3.
Houston Rockets: SF Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite Original pick: Thompson
There’s a lot of different ways Houston could go in a re-draft, but they also have plenty of reasons to feel good about their pick. Thompson not only made significant strides over the course of the season, but he also did it while impacting winning (he had a net rating of +30.1 when on the floor with most of Houston’s starting unit. In the first half of the year, he played 17 minutes/night and averaged 7 points, 4.8 boards, and 2.3 assists. In the second half of the season, he played 27.5 and put up 12.1, 8.4, and 2.9. He even punctuated his late gains with a triple-double in the season finale of 18 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, three steals and three blocks.
Coming into the draft, Thompson was billed as a potential jumbo lead guard. Ironically, he had the most success this year when utilized as an undersized forward, or even big, in small-ball line-ups. He’s every bit the dynamic athlete advertised, and under Ime Udoka, he’s weaponizing that to be an ultra-versatile, playmaking defender and elite perimeter rebounder. The offense, in particular the shooting, still needs a lot of work, and the extent to which that develops will ultimately determine his upside, but that’s exactly what we expected a year ago. What’s changed since then is the floor; he’s shown the other ways he can change the game and impact winning.
Detroit Pistons: SG Cam Whitmore, Villanova Original pick: Ausar Thompson
Ausar Thompson was the pick on draft night, and while that’s still a reasonable take, in retrospect the Pistons might consider the logic of adding a total non-shooter to a young core that already has shooting concerns. Unless, of course, they believed he had true star potential – which does not yet seem like a practical outcome. I feared it was a bit of a reach and have not yet been proven wrong.
So, what are the other options? Keyonte George might be intriguing here because his on/off-ball versatility and shooting could fit in nicely alongside Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, but the defensive end would be a concern. You could make a similar argument for Brandin Podziemski. The player left on the board though with the highest upside is Whitmore. Ironically, his draft day slide was reportedly rooted out of the intel from Detroit, where GM Troy Weaver’s DMV roots were believed to give him access to better intel on Whitmore.
Ultimately, Whitmore slid all the way to 20 and spent a lot of time with Houston’s G League affiliate to start the season. Once he cracked the rotation though, he showed the extreme scoring potential many scouts saw last year, albeit with the same limited passing ability. He averaged 12.3 points per game in just 18.7 minutes, equating to 23.7 points and 3.2 made 3-pointers per 36 minutes as a 19-year-old rookie.
Orlando Magic: SG Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara Original pick: Anthony Black
The Magic went with Black on draft night, and while this doesn’t look like the ideal choice in retrospect, I’m not convinced it doesn’t work out long-term, especially if Black can sustain this year’s shooting numbers. If they were to redo the pick today, knowing what we know now, Podz might get a longer look given his rare ability to impact winning as just a 21-year-old rookie. He led the Warriors in plus-minus this season (and was second among all rookies) while averaging nine points, nearly six rebounds, and four assists (with a better than 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio). He also led the league in charges drawn with 38. There would be questions about his upside this year, but Black’s combination of skill, feel, and sheer intellect for the game made him one of the most underrated prospects in last year’s draft.
Washington Wizards: C Dereck Lively, Duke Original pick: Bilal Coulibaly
French star Coulibaly was a home-run type swing on a young and ascending, albeit very unproven, prospect. It was considered a surprise on draft night and a year later, it looks like this might have been a little high for Coulibaly. In contrast, Lively would have given the Wizards arguably the best center in the draft not named Wemby. He plays a role that has proven to be translatable from day one as a shot blocker, lob threat, and rim protector. Lively may not have much star potential, but he could have been a long-term building block for a Wizards team that won only 15 games this year and has only a select few players they should be interested in retaining.
Indiana Pacers: PF GG Jackson, South Carolina Original pick: Jarace Walker
With the four-spot being the gaping hole in both the Pacers’ rotation and long-term depth chart, they went with Walker on draft night, albeit after making the heady move to move down a spot and pick up a future asset. Given the maturation he’s shown this year, Jackson would be in the mix here if we were to do it all over again, as he’s exceeded all expectations in Memphis since joining the team as a second-round pick with an unguaranteed deal. He averaged nearly 15 points per game, made 36% of his 3-pointers, had 12 games with 20-plus points, and four with 30-plus. Most importantly, his energy level and overall approach seem to be vastly different than they were at South Carolina.
Utah Jazz: SG Keyonte George, Baylor Original pick: Taylor Hendricks
Hendricks was the pick here on draft night, while the Jazz were able to find extreme value seven picks later by grabbing George at No. 16. In retrospect, George wouldn’t be on the board here, and there’s a chance he could be scooped up before now. He’s a very clear part of the future in Utah after averaging nearly 16 points and five assists in the last 25 games of the season. He finished fifth among all rookies in scoring and second in assists per game, all of which happened before his 20th birthday. His defense… well, that’s another story, but suffice it to say it’s a work in progress.
Oklahoma City Thunder: PG Cason Wallace, Kentucky Original pick: Wallace
I think the Thunder got this one right, even if Jaime Jaquez was still on the board (and Ausar Thompson, too, in this scenario). Wallace was an NBA-ready two-way guard and a better shooter than advertised. He knocked down 42% of his 3-pointers and came up with the game-winning stop in Game 1 of the NBA Playoff against the Pelicans. He is consistent and mature beyond his years with extreme durability – he was one of just 17 players in the league to play all 82 games this year. At worst, he projects as an elite two-way role player for a long time, but the most likely outcome is a starting guard with on/off-ball versatility.
Magic: PG Anthony Black, Arkansas Original pick: Jett Howard
As I said above, I still have hope for Black in Orlando. He’s the type of defender they value, he can play — and defend — multiple positions, he has a high basketball IQ and the potential to be a big initiator or lead guard. His shooting was the major question mark going into last year’s draft, but he converted 39% from 3-point range this season, albeit in limited supply. While he is admittedly not in the postseason rotation right now, I think there are enough reasons for Orlando to want to double down on this investment, especially when they have a sure thing like Podz already on the board in this scenario.
Dallas Mavericks: SF Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA Original pick: Dereck Lively
Lively was a terrific pick in this spot last year, and Dallas would do that again every day of the week. But Lively is off the board in his redraft, so the Mavs are in a pickle. The player who Jaquez has proven to be is too good to slide any further. The fit is nowhere near as good with the Mavs as with the Heat, but based on everything we have seen at both UCLA and now with the Heat, Jaquez would have figured out how to get on the floor and help impact winning.
Toronto Raptors: SF Ausar Thompson, Overtime Elite Original pick: Gradey Dick
This pick was about taking the best shooter on the board. The Raptors took Dick over Jordan Hawkins. While that is certainly debatable, what is interesting about the Raptors now is that they suddenly find themselves without the long and athletic multi-positional wing types that they seemed to prioritize for so many years. Ausar Thompson is one such wing, and so while the shooting would have undoubtedly been a concern on a team that already lacks great spacing, he would make sense given Toronto’s track record and current roster construction following midseason trades of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.
Pelicans: SG Jordan Hawkins, UConn Original pick: Hawkins
Like the Raptors, the Pelicans were looking for shooting. Whether Gradey Dick was still on the board or not, Hawkins still makes a lot of sense. While his production has been very up and down, as too has his overall opportunity, there’s no question he has the shooting potential to become a mainstay in the rotation.
Out of the lottery: Bilal Coulibaly, Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Jett Howard, Gradey Dick
