2024 First Four picks by proven model

The Virginia Cavaliers and Colorado State Rams meet in a 2024 First Four matchup on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. The Cavaliers (23-10), who placed third in the ACC at 13-7, are making their 26th overall appearance in the tournament, winning it all in 2019. The Rams (24-10), who are making their 12th NCAA Tournament appearance, are looking to advance for the first time since 2013, when they made it to the Round of 32. This will be the first time the teams have ever faced one another.

The game from the UD Arena tips off at 9:10 p.m. ET. Colorado State has a plus-8 point differential in 2023-24, 53rd-best in the nation, while Virginia has a plus-4 differential, 124th-best. The Rams are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Colorado State vs. Virginia odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 121. Before making any Virginia vs. Colorado State picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 148-106 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also has a strong 29-19 (+810) record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UVA vs. Colorado State in the First Four 2024. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Colorado State vs. UVA:

Colorado State vs. Virginia spread: Colorado State -2.5
Colorado State vs. Virginia over/under: 121 points
Colorado State vs. Virginia money line: Virginia +121, Colorado State -144
CSU: The Rams are 16-16 against the spread, including 3-7 in the last 10 games
UVA: The Cavaliers are 17-15-1 ATS in 2023-24
Colorado State vs. Virginia picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Colorado State can cover
Senior guard Nique Clifford is one of four Rams averaging double-digit scoring. In 34 games, all starts, he is averaging 12.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.5 steals in 30.3 minutes. He is connecting on 52.3% of his field goals, including 38.2% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free-throw line. In the 85-78 Mountain West Championship quarterfinal win over Nevada on Thursday, he registered a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds. It was his eighth double-double of the season.

Also helping power the Rams is senior forward Patrick Cartier. He has scored 10 or more points in 19 games, including a season-high 21 points in a 76-68 win over New Mexico on Jan. 2. He had 15 points, six rebounds and five assists in a 70-62 win over Wyoming on March 2. In 33 games, including 32 starts, he is averaging 10.5 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 23 minutes. See which team to pick at SportsLine.

Why Virginia can cover
Sophomore guard Ryan Dunn is a big part of the Cavaliers offense, and is connecting on 55.2% of his shots from the floor. He has reached double-digit scoring 11 times, including five double-doubles. He scored 19 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in a 69-52 win at Louisville on Jan. 27. In 33 games, all starts, Dunn is averaging 8.2 points, seven rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 1.3 steals in 27.5 minutes.

Also helping power Virginia is senior forward Jacob Groves, who registered a double-double with 15 points and 11 rebounds in the 66-60 overtime win over Boston College in the ACC quarterfinals on Thursday. It was his first double-double of the season. He has scored 10 or more points 11 times, including an 18-point effort in a 65-53 win against Notre Dame on Jan. 31. He has 15 starts in 33 games played, and is averaging 7.5 points and 2.8 rebounds. He is in his first season with the Cavaliers after two years at Eastern Washington and two years at Oklahoma. See which team to pick at SportsLine.

How to make Colorado State vs. Virginia picks
The model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 134 points. It also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

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